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Prediction for CME (2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001)

CME Observed Time: 2015-10-22T03:12Z
iSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/9539/-1
CME Note: Relatively faint partial halo CME associated with long duration C4.5 flare from AR2434.
CME Shock Arrival Time: 2015-10-24T18:26Z
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
----

Predicted Arrival Time: 2015-10-24T12:00Z (-12.0h, +12.0h)
Confidence that the CME will arrive: 20.0%
Predicted geomagnetic storm max Kp range due to CME: 3.0 - 6.0
Prediction Method: Other (SIDC)
Prediction Method Note:

:Issued: 2015 Oct 22 1230 UTC
:Product: documentation at http://www.sidc.be/products/meu
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
# DAILY BULLETIN ON SOLAR AND GEOMAGNETIC ACTIVITY from the SIDC     #
# (RWC Belgium)                                                      #
#--------------------------------------------------------------------#
SIDC URSIGRAM 51022
SIDC SOLAR BULLETIN 22 Oct 2015, 1230UT
SIDC FORECAST (valid from 1230UT, 22 Oct 2015 until 24 Oct 2015)
SOLAR FLARES  : C-class flares expected, (probability >=50%)
GEOMAGNETISM  : Quiet (A<20 and K<4)
SOLAR PROTONS : Quiet
PREDICTIONS FOR 22 Oct 2015  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 23 Oct 2015  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 006
PREDICTIONS FOR 24 Oct 2015  10CM FLUX: 130 / AP: 013
COMMENT: The Sun produced four C-class flares during the past period. The
strongest flare was a C7.7 flare (peaking at 17:56 UT on October 21),
originating from NOAA 2436.  NOAA 2434 produced a long duration C4.4 flare
(peaking at 3:40 UT on October 22), accompanied with a dimming and a CME.
The CME was first observed in LASCO/C2 at 3:12 UT and is propagating
southwest of the Sun-Earth line with a  projected speed of about 800 km/s.
Potentially an Earth-directed component will arrive on October 24. Flaring
at the C-level is expected,  but also an M-class flare is not excluded.

The solar wind speed gradually decreased from 450-480 km/s to current
values near 400 km/s. The magnitude of the interplanetary magnetic field
started at 10 nT, but quickly lowered to 5 nT. Geomagnetic conditions were
quiet to unsettled and are expected to continue. The CME of this UT morning
may cause a disturbance on October 24 around noon.
TODAY'S ESTIMATED ISN  : 096, BASED ON 09 STATIONS.

SOLAR INDICES FOR 21 Oct 2015
WOLF NUMBER CATANIA    : ///
10CM SOLAR FLUX        : 129
AK CHAMBON LA FORET    : 017
AK WINGST              : 011
ESTIMATED AP           : 011
ESTIMATED ISN          : 084, BASED ON 15 STATIONS.

NOTICEABLE EVENTS SUMMARY
DAY BEGIN MAX  END  LOC    XRAY OP  10CM Catania/NOAA RADIO_BURST_TYPES 
NONE
END

BT

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Lead Time: 53.98 hour(s)
Difference: 6.43 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Leila Mays (GSFC) on 2015-10-22T12:27Z

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